Time Frame: H1 & H4

Lets analyze this chart and determine how strong the kumo breakout is:
1. There is a bullish Tekan/Kijun cross
2. There is a candle close outside above the kumo
3. Chikou confirms the bullish bias
4. The leading kumo is bullish

Now lets analyze why this may be a weak signal:
1. Notice that the bearish kumo has a flat top, this can be dangerous as it represents “price
equilibrium” and price likes to come back towards it.
2. There is a bearish shooting star (reverse hammer), there has also been a failure to make higher
highs, maybe its just retracing? …maybe
3. We may be expecting a bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross soon
4. We have a convergence of Fibonacci levels, the 23 and 100, which provides support for a
bullish bias, we also have a pivot level at 1.0551, which provides further bullish support

Before I place my order for this amazing opportunity, I need to confirm this bullish bias via another
method.
In general we can see that price action is still below the kumo, there is a bullish cross but its would be
considered a weak signal, chikou also hasn’t yet broken out of the kumo.

Note: 200SMA is purple, 100SMA is blue, 50SMA is yellow, 20SMA is turquoise, 10SMA is orange
1. ADX is showing a bearish bias
2. The leading kumo is bearish
3. The 100 SMA is providing resistance
4. The 200 SMA is providing resistance
5. The central pivot point is 1.0597
Even though the H1 chart shows a promising bullish trade, I still remain bearish. Even though NFP
numbers came out with 162K, worse then the forecast but better then the previous of -14K, I don’t
believe price action will be able to break past 200SMA. The best course of action would be to either
enter a bearish trade with a tight stop loss just above the 200SMA, or simply wait for Monday or
Tuesday, to see how the market will continue to move.

4H:

We’re inside the bear flag yet, a breakout below 147 area is recquired first, for further down movements. Technically GJ is forming a BIG bearish bear flag on 4h.

Trade Idea: AUD/USD – 0.8988

Recent wave: Wave v of wave (v) possibly ended at 0.9407

Trend: Sideways

Original strategy : Buy at 0.8835, Target: 0.8990, Stop: 0.8760

New strategy :

Buy at 0.8860, Target: 0.9000, Stop: 0.8795

Although aussie has risen again after yesterday’s retreat, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp rise beyond 0.9055 (previous support, wave i trough) today and risk has increased for a retreat later. Below intra-day minor support at 0.8939 would bring retreat to 0.8860/70 before prospect of another rally probably next week.

Our preferred count is that wave (v) from 0.7700 is sub-divided by wave i: 0.7918, ii: 0.7859, wave iii at 0.8479 (instead of 0.8339) and wave iv correction ended at 0.8241 and wave v (with wave (4) of v ended at 0.8568) has ended at 0.9407. The decline from 0.9407 to 0.8735, tentatively wave A, has ended as a double three as labeled in the chart and wave B is now unfolding. Above 0.9055 would extend the wave B from 0.8735 towards 0.9150 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9407 to 0.8735).

In view of this, we would prefer not to chase this rise at current level and look to buy on subsequent pullback. Below 0.8800 would signal rebound from 0.8735 has ended, then retest of this level cannot be ruled out.

On the bigger picture, aussie’s rally after breaking resistance at 0.8265 confirms our bullish count that wave C rally from 0.6248 (2 Feb 2009) has resumed and the wave (v) of this wave C has either ended at 0.9407 or may extend marginally, however, as this move is the last leg of the larger degree wave 3 of C, upside should be limited to 0.9600.

To re-cap the current bullish count on aussie, the rally from 0.6007 to 0.7270 (7 Jan 2009) is tentatively marked as wave A, the retreat to 0.6248 (2 Feb 2009) is seen as wave B and the subsequent upmove is labeled as wave C should extend be capped below 0.9600.

GBP/USD – 1.6094

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level : 1.6111
Kijun-Sen level : 1.6035
Ichimoku cloud top : 1.6167
Ichimoku cloud bottom : 1.5973

New strategy

Buy at 1.5975, Target: 1.6150, Stop: 1.5910

Although the British pound retreated in tandem with euro, last week’s strong rebound from 1.5832 to 1.6236 signals a temporary low has been formed at 1.5832 and whilst further weakness to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.6035) is likely, reckon the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.5973) would limit downside and bring another leg of corrective rise later. Above the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.6167 would suggest this move is under way and retest of 1.6236 resistance would follow. Looking ahead, breach of this resistance would extend near term rise from 1.5832 towards 1.6277 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6722-1.5832).

In view of the above analysis, we prefer to look to buy cable on further fall. Below 1.5923 (a previous support level) would dampen this near term bullish view and indicate the rebound from 1.5832 is over, then weakness to 1.5880/90 would be seen later.

EUR/JPY – 132.77

EUR/JPY: Wave 2 correction from 139.26 has possibly ended at 126.95

The strong rebound from 127.32 has retained our preferred count that the triple threes wave 2 from 139.26 has possibly ended at 126.95 and indicated upside target at 131.00 has been met without much difficulty and price did break above indicated resistance at 131.60/70, confirming the retreat from 134.54 has ended, then headway towards resistance at 134.54 is under way.

The wave 2 from 139.26 was a triple threes,. abc-x-abc-x-abc, and is labeled as: first set of a-b-c ended at 127.00, then x wave at 138.72, followed by second set of a-b-c at 129.02, then another x wave at 138.49 with the third set of a-b-c marked as: a-131.01, b-135.75 and the c leg as well as entire wave 2 ended at 126.95.

Our preferred count remains that the upmove from 112.08 is wave 1 of C has ended at 139.26 with minor wave iii ended at 137.42, followed by triangle wave iv at 126.98, then the move from there to 127.00 is wave 2 with the latest break-down indicated above and consolidation with upside bias remains for another test of 134.54 and possibly to 135.00. Looking ahead, only breach of 135.76-136.00 resistance area would add credence to this count and signal wave 2 has indeed ended at 126.95, then headway to 137.00 and later test of resistance at 138.49 would follow.

On the downside, whilst pullback to 131.00 cannot be ruled out, renewed buying interest should emerge around 130.00 and bring such a rise. A daily close below 129.00 would prolong choppy trading but support at 127.32 should hold and bring another rebound in January 2010.

To re-cap the corrective upmove from the record low of 88.93 (18 Oct 2000), the wave A from there is subdivided as: 1:88.93-113.72, 2:99.88 (1 Jun 2001), 3:140.91 (30 May 2003), 4:124.17 (10 Nov 2003) and 5 was ended at record high of 169.97 (21 Jul 2008). The brief but sharp selloff to 112.08 is viewed as a-b-c x a-b-c type of correction in wave B. The subsequent rally from 112.08 showed impulsive structure, therefore, we labeled it as wave 1 of C.

The long-term downtrend started from calculated price of 359.26 (Dec 1979). The sharp fall from there to 226.60 (Aug 1981) with impulsive structure is labeled as wave I and wave II was capped at 256.59 (Nov 1982). Wave III decline was contained at 140.58 (Feb 1989), the subsequent rebound to 198.59 (Aug 1990) is seen as wave IV, the subsequent 5-wavers decline from there finished at 88.93 (18 Oct 2000). The strong rebound from there to 169.97 (21 Jul 2008) is tentatively viewed as wave A and wave B selloff was followed and is possibly ended at 112.08 (21 Jan 2009). Our alternate count is that entire wave IV correction already ended at 169.97, hence fall to 112.08 would be treated as the wave 1 of V.

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – 132.25

Recent wave: wave 2 is unfolding as a triple threes and possibly ended at 126.95

Trend: Sideways

Original strategy :

Buy at 131.00, Target: 132.90, Stop: 130.35

New trading strategy:

Buy at 130.80, Target: 132.90, Stop: 130.15

As the single currency has eased after rising to 132.61, consolidation below there would be seen and whilst pullback to 131.20/30 cannot be ruled out, reckon 130.59 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 127.32-132.61) would contain downside and bring another rally later. Our bullish count remains that the retreat from 134.54 has ended at 127.32 as wave ii and consolidation with upside bias remains for further gain to 132.90/00 and later towards 133.50.

Our preferred count remains that the wave 2 from 139.26 which unfolded as a complex correction triple threes has ended at 126.95 with first set of a-b-c ended at 127.00, then x wave at 138.72, followed by second set of a-b-c at 129.02, then another x wave at 138.49 with the third set of a-b-c marked as: a-131.01, b-135.75 and the c leg as well as entire wave 2 ended at 126.95. The sharp retreat from 134.54 signals the first leg of upmove from 126.95 has ended there and wave ii has possibly ended at 127.32 and above 131.60 resistance would add credence to this view and extend gain to 133.00 and 134.00 in wave iii.

In view of this, we still prefer to buy euro on pullback. Below 130.15 would risk stronger retreat to 129.75/85 and break there would prolong choppy consolidation and weakness to 129.10/20 would follow, however, downside should be limited to 128.40/50 and support at 127.32 should continue to hold.

In the event price drops below support at 126.95, this would extend decline from 138.49 towards 125.67 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 112.08 to 139.26), however, downside is likely to be limited to next chart support at 124.39.

On the bigger picture, we are treating the rally to 169.97 as end of wave A, then followed by a selloff in wave B (abc-x-abc) at 112.08. The wave C from there should unfolding as an impulse with wave 1 of C ended at 139.26, then the 3-legged wave 2 has ended at 127.00 and wave 3 should bring retest of 139.26, then towards 142.00.

PAIR:        EURJPY
INTERVAL:    240 minute
DIRECTION:    DOWN
TARGET    :    131.65
STOP LOSS:    133.59

Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

Past performance does not guarantee similar performance in the future. Our forecasts do not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any foreign exchange transaction. AnalysisFxBlog.com accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any expense. We do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timelines or completeness to the service or informations you find here.

PAIR: GBPCHF
INTERVAL: 15 minute
DIRECTION: DOWN
MOMENTUM (1): DOWN
MOMENTUM (10): DOWN
MOMENTUM (14): DOWN
RSI: DOWN
FORECAST FROM: 1.7381
FORECAST TO: 1.7280

Target 157.10 and Stop Loss around 158.43

PAIR: GBPJPY
INTERVAL: 15 minute
DIRECTION: DOWN
MOMENTUM (1): DOWN
MOMENTUM (10): DOWN
MOMENTUM (14): DOWN
RSI: DOWN
FORECAST FROM: 157.10
FORECAST TO: 156.18

]]> http://analysisfxblog.com/my-analysis/signal-gbpjpy-15m-16/feed/ 0 http://analysisfxblog.com/my-analysis/signal-gbpusd-15m-16/ http://analysisfxblog.com/my-analysis/signal-gbpusd-15m-16/#comments Tue, 02 Jun 2009 09:23:01 +0000 Forex Trading Easy http://analysisfxblog.com/?p=2313 Target 1.6316 and Stop Loss around 1.6421

PAIR: GBPUSD
INTERVAL: 15 minute
DIRECTION: DOWN
MOMENTUM (1): DOWN
MOMENTUM (10): DOWN
MOMENTUM (14): DOWN
RSI: DOWN
FORECAST FROM: 1.6316
FORECAST TO: 1.6249