USD/CAD has fallen deeply in the past two weeks. This trend continued this week despite ongoing recession. Apart from GDP, there are 4 more crucial events any loonie trade should carefully look out for this week: Building Permits, Interest Rate decision, Ivey PMI and the Unemployment Rate. Let’s dive into their meaning (and timing) for the loonie.

The US dollar began the first week of June with another downfall. The Canadian dollar is one of the winners: USD/CAD now trades at 1.0857. Earlier, it dropped under 1.08. The fall goes on.

Two weeks ago, I wrote about an important week for the Canadain dollar. After last week’s quiet week, we are loaded with event. Here are the Canadian indicators. Note that 3 of them are on

1. GDP: Canada is unique in providing a monthly GDP figure. GDP for the month of March fell by 0.3% as expected. This sums up to an annualized fall of 5.4% in the first quarter of 2009. Though slightly better than the US, this figure is quite bad. Since this exact result was expected, it only slightly bounced the descent of USD/CAD.
2. Building Permits: Houses are an excellent measure of a country’s economy. Canada’s Building Permits moved like the forex market – wild! Last month, they rose by a whopping 23.5%. This time, they’re expected to drop by 9.2%. Since this number can make a big surprise, it’ll be quite adventurous to be at the market after the release. It’s published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT.
3. Interest Rate decision: The Bank of Canada isn’t expected to raise the Overnight Rate above the bottom. At 0.25%, it can’t go lower. After the BOC exhausted it’s interest rate tools, the focus will be on the BOC Rate Statement. Commodity prices have risen lately. This rise affects Canada’s commodity oriented economy. On the otehr hand, Canada is very dependant on the US. So, will the BOC communicate optimism or pessimism? The wording statement will have a great influence on the USD/CAD. Note the timing: half an hour after the Building Permits.
4. Ivey PMI: Released on Thursday at 14:00 GMT. The Purchasing Managers’ Index supplied by the Richard Ivey School of Business is a highly regarded indicator. Last month, it surprised by scoring above 50 – indicating optimism and economic expansion. This time, it’s predicted to rise from 53.7 to 54.3 – edge higher. If this index will have a different mood than the BOC Rate Statement, the loonie will go quite wild.
5. Unemployment Rate: Canada’s employment market is suffering in this recession. The unemployment rate has risen to 8% from around 6% before the crisis began. It’s predicted to worsen and rise to 8.3%. A worse figure will hurt the Canadian dollar and send USD/CAD upwards. The accompanying figure is the Employment Change, published at the same hour – 11:00 GMT. While it’s not so “famous” as the unemployment rate, it’s no less significant for understanding the job market, and actually the whole economy. After surprising last time and rising by 35.9K, it’s expected to turn negative and fall by about 38K. These figures, released an hour and a half before the American Non-Farm Payrolls, will have a great impact on the loonie.

USD/CAD major tehnical lines

After breaking the big barrier of 1.1470, USD/CAD fell more and more. 1.08 also serves as support line, since it acted as a resistance line in September 2008. Yup, about 9 months ago.

The next line is around 1.04, which served both as a support line and as a resistance line during 2008. And of course, there’s the magical parity number: USD 1: CAD 1.

Geneva – 03 April 2009 | 18:05
EXCLUSIVE: A squad of 28 police officers raid the downtown Geneva offices of currency trading company ACM and seize documents, a computer and other evidence in a suspected financial fraud case. Swisster discovers the unprecedented affair, being directed by an inspector and detective for the cantonal force’s financial fraud brigade, may take weeks to unravel and has involved the questioning of top officials from the company, who are refusing to comment.

Geneva police are continuing to investigate a foreign exchange trading company based in the city after launching an unprecedented raid of the firm’s downtown offices, a spokesman for the cantonal force said Friday.

Swisster has learned that a squad of officers raided the premises of ACM (Advanced Currency Markets) on Thursday morning seeking evidence in relation to a suspected financial fraud case.

“I can confirm to you that yesterday 28 police officers went to the offices (of ACM),” Geneva police spokesman Patrick Pulh told Swisster. Police took away documents, a computer and other evidence from the company’s premises at 50, rue du Rhône, he said.

In addition, senior officials were questioned by police, although Pulh said no-one has been arrested. A company employee told Swisster that a trader and four of the company’s senior management, including Nicholas Bang, deputy general manager and one of ACM’s founders, were contacted at their homes early Thursday and taken in for questioning.

“We are being told that it has to do with a client from two years ago based in Mexico who had lost a lot of money from the company,” the informant said. “The client was looking for documents to see if there was any misappropriation.”

Pulh confirmed that senior company officials were questioned but could not go into details. “At this moment no one has been arrested,” he said. An inspector and a detective from the cantonal police force’s financial fraud brigade are directing the investigation, Pulh said.

“It could take a few days or a few weeks to work on this case,” he said. “We are at the beginning of the investigation so that’s why we are not saying what kind of charges are being looked at . . . it’s early in the investigation.”

ACM did not immediately respond to an emailed request from Swisster for a statement about the investigation from company CEO Lloyd La Marca, or another representative. “I’m afraid we cannot comment on it,” said Claudia Schulz, a marketing spokesman for the company. “Personally I would not take responsibility for commenting.” Schulz said she would pass on Swisster’s request to the company’s marketing manager.

Operations at ACM, which employs a staff of about 100 people working on two floors, including sales staff and currency traders, appeared to continue normally on Friday. Founded seven years ago by La Marca and Bang, former students of the University of Geneva, and Alexandre Axarlis, a former United Nations and World Trade Organization employee, ACM has grown to include offices in Zurich, New York, Dubai and Montevideo.
The company offers a range of currency trading services. ACM “offers the most competitive, transparent and simple execution to the foreign exchange trader,” according to its website.